Desired dough temperature, or DDT, is the temperature you want the dough to be when mixing ends. It matters because temperature sets the pace of fermentation. Modernist Pizza calls temperature the tactic bakers use most to control yeast, and Forkish counts time and temperature as ingredients in their own right: warmer dough, and dough in a warmer room, develops faster.
A recipe’s timings assume a starting point. Forkish writes most of his for a kitchen of about 70°F (21°C), room-temperature flour and a dough that comes off the mix at about 80°F. The formula works out what water temperature gets your dough to the recipe’s target when your kitchen or flour isn’t at the recipe’s temperature.
The formula
King Arthur Baking’s version, for a straight dough:
Water temperature = (3 × DDT) − room temperature − flour temperature − friction factor
- DDT is the dough temperature you want at the end of mixing.
- Room and flour temperatures are what you measure. Push a probe thermometer into the flour rather than assuming it matches the room.
- Friction factor is the heat that mixing and kneading add to the dough.
- Water temperature is the answer, and the one input you can easily change.
The 3 is there because the formula treats room, flour and water as three equal contributions to the dough’s temperature. That’s a simplification: King Arthur notes that it doesn’t fully account for the room, especially in very cool or hot kitchens and with small home batches. Treat the answer as a well-informed first guess and let the thermometer correct it.
Use one scale throughout. If you work in Celsius, convert the friction factor as a temperature difference: 9°F of friction is 5°C.
Friction factors
How much heat mixing adds depends on the mixer, the speed, the time and the size of the batch.
| How the dough is mixed | Friction factor | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Mostly gentle folds, or cool hands | 0–4°F (0–2°C) | King Arthur Baking |
| Forkish’s short hand mix: 30 to 60 seconds, then a brief knead | About 5–10°F (3–6°C) | Calculated from his recipe temperatures |
| Forkish’s New York dough: about 90 seconds in a stand mixer on the slowest speed | About 4–10°F (2–6°C) | Calculated from his recipe temperatures |
| About 8 minutes of mixing and kneading by hand | 6–8°F (3–4°C) | King Arthur Baking |
| A 7-quart KitchenAid with the dough hook: 3 minutes on stir, then 4 on speed 2 | 22–24°F (12–13°C) | King Arthur Baking |
The two Forkish rows come from running his own numbers through the formula, assuming flour and room both at his stated 70°F. He mixes most hand-mixed doughs with 90 to 95°F (32 to 35°C) water and room-temperature flour in a 70°F kitchen, and aims for 80°F; that works out to a friction factor of about 5 to 10°F. His New York dough uses 90°F water for a target of 78 to 80°F, which works out to about 4 to 10°F. These are fitted to his recipe temperatures, not measured heat from his hands or mixer, so measure your own.
Pizza dough is usually mixed far more briefly than sandwich bread, which is why its friction factor is small. A long machine knead adds much more heat, and Forkish warns against it anyway: mixing too long in a machine makes the dough more elastic and the crust chewier.
Measure your own. King Arthur’s method: mix a batch, take the dough’s temperature, then work backwards.
Friction factor = (3 × actual dough temperature) − room − flour − water
Write it down with how you mixed. The next time you mix the same way, your number will beat any table.
Worked examples
All four are calculated in Fahrenheit, with Celsius conversions of the results.
Forkish’s kitchen. Room 70°F, flour 70°F, target 80°F, short hand mix with a friction factor of 5°F: (3 × 80) − 70 − 70 − 5 = 95°F (35°C), the top of his 90 to 95°F range.
A hot summer kitchen. Room 82°F (28°C), flour 82°F, same mix and target: (3 × 80) − 82 − 82 − 5 = 71°F (22°C), cool tap water.
Forkish’s advice for hot weather is to go further: use water 10 to 15°F (5 to 8°C) colder and aim for a dough in the low 70s°F (low 20s°C), or use a little less yeast. Aiming for 72°F: (3 × 72) − 82 − 82 − 5 = 47°F (8°C), water chilled in the fridge.
A cool kitchen. Room 64°F (18°C), flour 64°F, same mix, target 80°F: (3 × 80) − 64 − 64 − 5 = 107°F (42°C).
That is warmer than the water in these Forkish recipes; see when the formula asks for very hot water below for what to do instead.
A long knead in a stand mixer. Room 70°F, flour 70°F, target 78°F, friction factor 23°F: (3 × 78) − 70 − 70 − 23 = 71°F (22°C). Seven minutes of machine kneading adds so much heat that the water needs to be cooler than the room.
With a preferment
When the dough includes a poolish, biga or sourdough levain, King Arthur multiplies the target by 4 instead of 3 and subtracts the preferment’s temperature as a fourth input:
Water temperature = (4 × DDT) − room − flour − preferment − friction factor
King Arthur’s own example: a target of 75°F, flour and room at 68°F, a preferment at 71°F and a friction factor of 26°F gives 300 − 68 − 68 − 71 − 26 = 67°F (19°C).
This version gives the preferment the same weight as the flour, however much of it the recipe uses, so measure the mixed dough and adjust. Where a recipe gives its own water temperature for the final mix, start there. Forkish’s biga dough, for example, mixes the final dough with 95 to 100°F (35 to 38°C) water and aims for 75°F (24°C) once the biga is in. More on building them in poolish, biga and other preferments.
Cold water, ice and yeast
In a hot kitchen the formula can ask for water straight from the fridge, or colder. That’s fine for the dough, but King Arthur advises not to expose instant yeast directly to water below about 70°F (21°C). Mix the yeast into the flour first instead. If you keep yeast in the freezer, let it come to room temperature before it meets cold water.
Active dry yeast is different: it needs warm water to rehydrate. King Arthur dissolves it in a few tablespoons of the recipe’s water at about 110°F (43°C) before adding the rest, and Modernist Pizza blooms it at the same temperature. Take that water from the recipe’s total. More in how yeast works in pizza dough.
When the formula asks for very hot water
In a cold kitchen, the formula can ask for water warmer than a pizza recipe uses. These Forkish recipes use water up to about 100°F (38°C). Rather than chasing a hotter number, follow the yeast package’s mixing directions, warm cold flour or the room if needed, and check the finished dough temperature.
His suggestions for a house colder than his:
- Warmer water and flour. Keep the flour at room temperature; he calibrated all his water temperatures for unrefrigerated flour.
- A warmer spot for the dough, such as a sunny corner of the room.
- More time. A dough that comes off the mix at 70°F instead of 80°F isn’t ruined; it will just take longer to develop.
Using it with the Pizza Planner
The Pizza Planner asks for your room and fridge temperatures in its Fine-tune panel. It plans for a room between 64 and 79°F (18 and 26°C) and a fridge between 34 and 41°F (1 and 5°C), and flags a room outside 68 to 75°F (20 to 24°C) as outside its reference range. It doesn’t calculate water temperature, and it doesn’t predict exact fermentation speed: its timings are windows, and the dough’s readiness cues decide when each stage is done.
That’s where the formula helps. The Planner’s same-day and cold schedules follow Forkish’s recipe families, which he writes for a dough of about 80°F after mixing in a 70°F room. Mixing to that temperature starts your dough where those windows expect it to be. In a warmer or cooler kitchen, expect it to run ahead of or behind the window, and go by the dough.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Do I need a thermometer for this?
- Yes. Forkish calls an instant-read digital probe thermometer essential, both for the water and for the dough right after mixing. Measuring the mixed dough is what lets you correct the friction factor for your own kitchen.
- Should I measure the flour or just use the room temperature?
- Measure the flour if it's stored somewhere warmer or cooler than the kitchen. Forkish keeps his at room temperature and calibrated his recipes that way, so if yours lives in a cold pantry or the fridge, either let it warm up or put its real temperature into the formula.
- What if my dough comes out warmer or cooler than the target?
- It will ferment faster or slower than the recipe's timings. Forkish's advice for a dough well below target is to find it a warm spot or allow more time. A dough above target will run ahead, so check it early and go by its readiness rather than the clock. Then recalculate your friction factor from that batch and adjust the water next time.
- Does the formula work for sourdough pizza dough?
- Yes. Use the version with a preferment: multiply the target by 4 and subtract the levain's temperature along with the room, the flour and the friction factor. A levain used straight from the fridge is much colder than one built at room temperature, so measure it.
Sources
- King Arthur Baking: Barb Alpern, “Desired dough temperature” (2018: the formula, the 75 to 78°F range, friction factors for hand and stand-mixer kneading, cold water with instant and active dry yeast, and the formula’s limits); Barb Alpern, “Determining the friction factor in baking” (2018: calculating your own friction factor, and 0 to 4°F for gentle folds); and the Dough Temperature professional reference (the preferment version and its worked example). Checked October 14, 2026.
- Ken Forkish, The Elements of Pizza (2016): chapter 3 (detail 2, time and temperature as ingredients and the 80 to 82°F target; detail 4, machine mixing; detail 5, seasonal and hot-climate adjustments), chapter 4 (room-temperature flour; the probe thermometer), chapter 5 (a dough that comes off the mix below target) and chapter 6 (water and dough temperatures in the Saturday, I Slept In, 24- to 48-hour, biga, New York and Overnight Levain doughs, and the levain build).
- Nathan Myhrvold and Francisco Migoya, Modernist Pizza (2021), volume 1: printed page 292 (temperature as the main control on yeast) and page 296 (blooming instant and active dry yeast).